SET-LEVEL THESIS · 0–10 SCALE

Long-Term Thesis · Celebrations

Composite investment-thesis score across 6 weighted factors. Generational (9+), Strong (7+), Moderate (4+). Updated weekly as pricing, supply and reprint signals move.

LTS SCORE

7.2

STRONG

0 weak4 moderate7 strong9 gen.

CONVICTION GRADE

Proven

Solid

Limited

Unproven

4 historical signals · 100% hit rate · +23.9% avg return.

FACTOR BREAKDOWN · WEIGHTED COMPOSITE

IP Desirability10.0

avg sealed price $808 — top-tier IP pull

Chase Card Significance5.8

Charizard · $192 chase · 0% EV

Historical Performance9.0

4 signals · 100% hit rate · +23.9% avg return

Destruction Momentum4.0

no contraction observed across SKUs

Reprint Risk(LOWER = RISKIER)8.6

4.6 years since release — reprint risk minimal

Signal Track Record5.4

4 signal events · 100% hit rate

AI THESIS · DRAFTED FROM FACTOR SIGNALS

data snapshot · refreshed every 10 min

Celebrations scores 7.2/10 — a strong sealed thesis for the UPCSPCS era. Strongest factor: IP Desirability (10.0) — avg sealed price $808 — top-tier IP pull. Weakest factor: Destruction Momentum (4.0) — no contraction observed across SKUs. Backtest: 4 signals at 100% hit rate.

Proven backtestReprint risk low

ⓘ This analysis reflects data patterns only and is not investment advice.