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SET-LEVEL THESIS · 0–10 SCALE
Long-Term Thesis · Lost Origin
Composite investment-thesis score across 6 weighted factors. Generational (9+), Strong (7+), Moderate (4+). Updated weekly as pricing, supply and reprint signals move.
LTS SCORE
7.8
STRONG
0 weak4 moderate7 strong9 gen.
CONVICTION GRADE
A
Proven
B
Solid
C
Limited
D
Unproven
14 historical signals · 86% hit rate · +13.4% avg return.
FACTOR BREAKDOWN · WEIGHTED COMPOSITE
IP Desirability10.0
avg sealed price $829 — top-tier IP pull
Chase Card Significance7.5
Giratina V Alternate Full Art · $817 chase · 1% EV
Historical Performance6.5
14 signals · 86% hit rate · +13.4% avg return
Destruction Momentum10.0
-42.6% avg supply contraction across 1 SKU
Reprint Risk(LOWER = RISKIER)7.7
3.7 years since release — reprint risk reduced
Signal Track Record5.7
14 signal events · 86% hit rate
AI THESIS · DRAFTED FROM FACTOR SIGNALS
data snapshot · refreshed every 10 minLost Origin scores 7.8/10 — a strong sealed thesis for the SWSH era. Strongest factor: IP Desirability (10.0) — avg sealed price $829 — top-tier IP pull. Weakest factor: Signal Track Record (5.7) — 14 signal events · 86% hit rate. Backtest: 14 signals at 86% hit rate.
Proven backtestSupply tighteningReprint risk lowIconic chase card
ⓘ This analysis reflects data patterns only and is not investment advice.