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SET-LEVEL THESIS · 0–10 SCALE
Long-Term Thesis · Paldea Evolved
Composite investment-thesis score across 6 weighted factors. Generational (9+), Strong (7+), Moderate (4+). Updated weekly as pricing, supply and reprint signals move.
LTS SCORE
5.8
MODERATE
0 weak4 moderate7 strong9 gen.
CONVICTION GRADE
A
Proven
B
Solid
C
Limited
D
Unproven
9 historical signals · 67% hit rate · +1.0% avg return.
FACTOR BREAKDOWN · WEIGHTED COMPOSITE
IP Desirability10.0
avg sealed price $523 — top-tier IP pull
Chase Card Significance6.6
Magikarp 203 193 · $398 chase · 1% EV
Historical Performance3.5
9 signals · 67% hit rate · +1.0% avg return
Destruction Momentum4.0
no contraction observed across SKUs
Reprint Risk(LOWER = RISKIER)7.0
3.0 years since release — reprint risk reduced
Signal Track Record4.2
9 signal events · 67% hit rate
AI THESIS · DRAFTED FROM FACTOR SIGNALS
data snapshot · refreshed every 10 minPaldea Evolved scores 5.8/10 — a moderate sealed thesis for the SV era. Strongest factor: IP Desirability (10.0) — avg sealed price $523 — top-tier IP pull. Weakest factor: Historical Performance (3.5) — 9 signals · 67% hit rate · +1.0% avg return. Backtest: 9 signals at 67% hit rate.
Reprint risk low
ⓘ This analysis reflects data patterns only and is not investment advice.