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SET-LEVEL THESIS · 0–10 SCALE
Long-Term Thesis · Surging Sparks
Composite investment-thesis score across 6 weighted factors. Generational (9+), Strong (7+), Moderate (4+). Updated weekly as pricing, supply and reprint signals move.
LTS SCORE
6.2
MODERATE
0 weak4 moderate7 strong9 gen.
CONVICTION GRADE
A
Proven
B
Solid
C
Limited
D
Unproven
6 historical signals · 67% hit rate · +1.8% avg return.
FACTOR BREAKDOWN · WEIGHTED COMPOSITE
IP Desirability8.7
avg sealed price $281 — top-tier IP pull
Chase Card Significance6.3
Pikachu ex 238 191 · $333 chase · 1% EV
Historical Performance3.6
6 signals · 67% hit rate · +1.8% avg return
Destruction Momentum10.0
-34.4% avg supply contraction across 2 SKUs
Reprint Risk(LOWER = RISKIER)5.5
1.5 years since release — still in active print era
Signal Track Record3.9
6 signal events · 67% hit rate
AI THESIS · DRAFTED FROM FACTOR SIGNALS
data snapshot · refreshed every 10 minSurging Sparks scores 6.2/10 — a moderate sealed thesis for the SV era. Strongest factor: Destruction Momentum (10.0) — -34.4% avg supply contraction across 2 SKUs. Weakest factor: Historical Performance (3.6) — 6 signals · 67% hit rate · +1.8% avg return. Backtest: 6 signals at 67% hit rate.
Supply tightening
ⓘ This analysis reflects data patterns only and is not investment advice.