SET-LEVEL THESIS · 0–10 SCALE

Long-Term Thesis · Twilight Masquerade

Composite investment-thesis score across 6 weighted factors. Generational (9+), Strong (7+), Moderate (4+). Updated weekly as pricing, supply and reprint signals move.

LTS SCORE

7.2

STRONG

0 weak4 moderate7 strong9 gen.

CONVICTION GRADE

Proven

Solid

Limited

Unproven

6 historical signals · 100% hit rate · +7.7% avg return.

FACTOR BREAKDOWN · WEIGHTED COMPOSITE

IP Desirability8.6

avg sealed price $270 — top-tier IP pull

Chase Card Significance6.5

Greninja ex 214 167 · $362 chase · 1% EV

Historical Performance6.3

6 signals · 100% hit rate · +7.7% avg return

Destruction Momentum10.0

-46.4% avg supply contraction across 2 SKUs

Reprint Risk(LOWER = RISKIER)6.0

2.0 years since release — reprint risk reduced

Signal Track Record5.6

6 signal events · 100% hit rate

AI THESIS · DRAFTED FROM FACTOR SIGNALS

data snapshot · refreshed every 10 min

Twilight Masquerade scores 7.2/10 — a strong sealed thesis for the SV era. Strongest factor: Destruction Momentum (10.0) — -46.4% avg supply contraction across 2 SKUs. Weakest factor: Signal Track Record (5.6) — 6 signal events · 100% hit rate. Backtest: 6 signals at 100% hit rate.

Proven backtestSupply tightening

ⓘ This analysis reflects data patterns only and is not investment advice.